Sunday 20 December 2015

Turkey-Erdogan-ISIS Oil Trade, Global Markets: Research Paper

Here is more on the ISIS terrorist oil trade. 
1) a statement by Putin, 
2) a statement by a Turkish legislator, 
3) a study from the Univ. of Greenwich, London.

ISIS EXPORT GATEWAY TO GLOBAL CRUDE OIL MARKETS George KIOURKTSOGLOU* 

Visiting Lecturer, University of Greenwich, London Dr Alec D COUTROUBIS Principal Lecturer, University of Greenwich, London
 
To sum it up, ISIS is financed by oil transport to a Turkish government oil loading facility in the port of Ceyhan. This ISIS oil trade center is a few miles from the major US operations center at Incirlik, Turkey.

1) "Vehicles, carrying oil, lined up in a chain going beyond the horizon. The views resemble a living oil pipe stretched from ISIS and rebel controlled areas of Syria into Turkey. Day and night they are going to Turkey. Trucks always go there loaded, and back from there – empty. We are talking about a commercial-scale supply of oil from the occupied Syrian territories seized by terrorists. It is from these areas [that oil comes from], and not with any others. And we can see it from the air, where these vehicles are going. We assume that the top political leadership of Turkey might not know anything about this hard to believe, if the top political leadership doesn’t know anything about this, let them find out." - Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin

2) “$800 million worth of oil that ISIS obtained from regions it occupied this year [in northern Syria and most recently Mosul] is being sold in Turkey. They have laid pipes from villages near the Turkish border at Hatay. Similar pipes exist also at [the Turkish border regions of] Kilis, Urfa and Gaziantep. They transfer the oil to Turkey and parlay it into cash. They take the oil from the refineries at zero cost. Using primitive means, they refine the oil in areas close to the Turkish border and then sell it via Turkey. This is worth $800 million. ISIL holds the key to these deposits and together with a certain group of persons, consisting of those close to Barzani and some Turkish businessmen, they are engaged in selling this oil." - Ali Ediboglu Turkish member of Parliament.

3) "The port of Ceyhan plays host to a marine oil terminal that is situated in the Turkish Mediterranean and has been operating since 2006. It receives hydrocarbons for further loading in tankers, which carry the commodity to world markets.The authors of the present paper believe that there is another proxy-indicator, far more sensitive to quantities of ultracheap smuggled crude. This is the charter rates for tankers loading at Ceyhan.

From July 2014 until February 2015, the curve of [charter rate] TD 19 features three unusual spikes that do not match the trends featured by the rest of the Middle East trade-routes (see Graph IV):

The first spike develops from the 10th of July 2014 until the 21st, lasting approximately ten days. It coincides with the fall of Syria’s largest oil field, the AlOmar, in the hands of ISIS (Reuters 2014); 

The second spike takes place from the end of October until the end of November 2014, lasting one month. It happens at the same time with fierce fighting between fundamentalists and the Syrian army over the control of the Jhar and Mahr gas fields, as well as the Hayyan gas company in the east of Homs province (International Business Times 2014; Albawada News 214); 

The third spike lasts from the end of January 2015 until the 10th of February, stretching roughly ten days. It happens simultaneously with a sustained US-led campaign of airstrikes pounding ISIS strongholds in and around the town of Hawija east of the oil-rich Kirkuk (Rudaw 2015);

An additional manifestation of the invisible nexus between Ceyhan and ISIS became evident through the concurrent study of the tanker charter rates from the port and the timeline of the terrorists’ military engagements (see section 3.4 on this page). It seems that whenever the Islamic State is fighting in the vicinity of an area hosting oil assets, the 13 exports from Ceyhan promptly spike. This may be attributed to an extra boost given to crude oil smuggling with the aim of immediately generating additional funds, badly needed for the supply of ammunition and military equipment. " - from University of Greenwich, London academic paper titled: ISIS Gateway To Global Crude Oil Markets (see link to paper below)

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